English Premier League Relegation Run-in

It's that time of the season in the Premier League that many football fans' attentions are focused on either the top of the table or the bottom.  With the title pretty much looking like it'll be heading to the United side of the Mancunian City (United are 8 points clear of their City rivals at the time of writing with 6 games left to play), there are decidedly more interesting events taking place at the other end of the table.  My last musings talked about whether or not football fans might witness a repeat of the West Brom "Great Escape" in the form of Blackburn Rovers and at the moment that is still a possibility but it is tight down there, very tight!

Let's take a look at the teams in the mix down at the bottom (I'm discounting Aston Villa as I don't think they will get dragged into the fight at this point):

• Wolverhampton Wanderers - currently bottom of the league, 6 points adrift of safety on 22;
• Wigan Athletic - 19th on 28 points, with a goal difference of -27;
• Blackburn Rovers - 18th also on 28 points with a goal difference of -24;
• QPR - 17th again on 28 points with a goal difference of -21;
• Bolton Wanderers - 16th, on 29 points with a goal difference of -27 (with a game in hand).

Wolves would appear to be on a hiding to nothing at the moment, 6 losses in a row and no wins since December 5th would indicate a team that is going nowhere but down and as they are 6 points adrift would be heavily reliant on the teams above dropping points as well.  Unfortunately for them I think the game is already over, especially with matches against Arsenal and Manchester City to come.

Wigan are an enigma, they looked doomed and yet they have recently conjured up wins against Liverpool and Stoke, when you might have expected them to lose and were mightily unlucky against Chelsea in their last match.  This is the time of the year when Wigan suddenly click into life as if they only just realise the peril they are in, OK it makes for an entertaining finish but I'm sure Wigan fans would much prefer mid table safety right now.  Wigan are a difficult one to predict though as the remaining fixtures in April look very tough; Man United, Arsenal, Fulham and Newcastle.   I think a lot will hinge on their game against Blackburn in May if they're still in the running to stay up at that point.  Otherwise my gut would suggest it may well be too little too late this time.

Blackburn did manage to get themselves a full 6 points clear of trouble a few weeks ago but after 3 defeats in a row and with teams below them picking up points they are right back in it again.  The form is worrying, conceding goals again (as for most of the season other than a two game break where they managed to keep clean sheets) and not scoring too many when this has been the one thing they could generally rely on.  If they are to steer clear of trouble, they are going to need to start finding the back of the net once more and tighten up in defence.  Their run in is mixed, some very tough games and a few that if they hit form they could well get results from.  Next up is Liverpool at Ewood and fans must be hoping for some of the generosity shown towards Wigan and QPR in the last few weeks from the Merseyside team.  Right now, I really think the last relegation place is going to be between Blackburn and QPR and given each teams respective fixtures I would say Blackburn might just scrape their "Great Escape" but maybe only by a point.

Many football fans had written QPR off as a lost cause, based mostly on their ridiculously tough run in.  They have however given themselves a fighting chance by upsetting the odds and beating both Liverpool and Arsenal in recent weeks but with games still to come against Tottenham, Chelsea and Manchester City it is still going to be a tough ask to steer clear of trouble.  Fans of the other clubs in the mire will be hoping that the teams QPR play will go for it wholeheartedly regardless of whether or not their respective seasons are in effect over.  I believe that if QPR are to survive it will come down to their ability to pull off a shock in one of their so called "tougher matches".

Bolton have been up and down all season results wise, they have lost more games than anyone else in the Premier League but their ability to win rather than draw in other matches sees them in 16th position at the moment.  Their run-in is arguably the easiest of all the teams at the bottom and it is for this reason that I think they will have enough to steer themselves clear of trouble despite them having a particularly tough year.

So in conclusion I predict Wolves, Wigan and QPR for the drop in that order with Blackburn just doing enough to escape and Bolton finishing in 16th.  It will be a long and interesting run-in.

Is another "great escape" in the Premiership on the cards?

The Great Escape, more commonly known  as a World War II mass escape from the German prisoner-of-war camp Stalag Luft III and documented in the film of 1963 is very often now also associated across football with teams, who against all the odds, manage to escape the dreaded trapdoor of relegation.

There are many recent examples of last day, heroic escapes from the Premiership trapdoor.  In 1993, Oldham (remember them?) pulled off a 4-3 win over Southampton.  They needed to win, for Crystal Palace to lose and for 3 goals to be scored.  They led 4-1 and held on for the 4-3 win, while Palace lost 3-0 to Arsenal.

How about Everton?  Still in the Premiership today, but had events conspired against them in 1994 things might be very different.  They beat Wimbledon on the last day of the season 3-2.  Had they drawn, the fact that Ipswich managed to draw with Blackburn would have seen them fall through the trapdoor.  Things looked very bad at 2-0 down, but a penalty, a wonder goal and some generous keeping for the third goal kept them up.

Perhaps the most famous escape of them all was by West Brom, doomed at Christmas by being in the infamous bottom place from whence no team shall survive (that's Premiership law by all accounts!), they managed to defy everyone by beating Portsmouth on the final day and with all other results going their way stayed up.  No team before or since has survived being bottom on Christmas Day in the Premier League, hence why many refer to that West Brom season as being the "Great Escape".

Oh how fans of Blackburn Rovers will be praying that they can reenact this great feat.  Bottom on Christmas day, following a 2-0 defeat to neighbours Bolton, who at the same time climbed off the bottom themselves, they currently find themselves in 18th position going into a home game against Newcastle on the 1st February.  Recent form suggests a revival of sorts with a good point taken at Anfield, a famous win over Man United at Old Trafford, a heroic win against Fulham with 10 men and a solid point away to Everton in the space of 5 weeks.  What remains to be seen is if this form can be held and another episode of the "Great Escape" played out.

There are some tough games still to play, games away to Arsenal, Manchester City (currently top of the league), Tottenham and a final day encounter at Chelsea will all be tough with Premiership and Champions League honours within the grasp of all these teams, however, there are also some, dare I say it, winnable games as well.  There for the taking are QPR, Wolves, Sunderland, Bolton, West Brom, Swansea, Norwich and Wigan all teams who have been in and around Mid to Bottom of the table.

Whatever happens, it going to be some ride for Blackburn fans over the next 3 or 4 months and I'm sure many will prefer to see the team safe before the final day match away to Chelsea such is the nail biting tension final day encounters can bring.  It was only just under a season ago that Blackburn found themselves in another final day survival game against Wolves, themselves in the mire, when both teams managed to stay up, however this season it may well be a much closer affair.  Will we see the Great Escape reenacted?  Hold on to your hats and let the run-in begin!