Trying to predict results at the bottom of the English Premiership currently is like trying to come up with those elusive lottery numbers to win the jackpot - in other words it's all rather unpredictable at the moment! There have been more "shock" results since I last blogged my predictions for the run-in. QPR pulled off a win against Tottenham (playing with 10 men for the last 10 or so minutes of the game); Wigan, despite their brilliant run of form recently, finally succumbed to Fulham in the last minute of their last game after earlier having pulled off another shock result in beating Arsenal; Blackburn have managed to keep their increasingly slim hopes of staying up alive by beating Norwich at home and Bolton took full advantage of one of their two games in hand on everyone else by beating Aston Villa on a horribly damp night which would have suited the mood of the Villa supporters.
Speaking of Aston Villa, they are starting to look like "that team" that no-one thinks is in trouble until the last minute. Interesting times for fans of anyone not supporting any of these clubs as they can watch on in fascination whilst those around them panic! It should be noted that at this point one of my original predicted teams to go (although this one was fairly easy to foresee) fell through the trapdoor over the weekend - the Wolves (or Wolverhampton Wanderers) will be on new hunting ground next season.
So to my latest predictions for the final table (drum roll please - or should that be death knoll?!) my version stands as follows:
15th Aston Villa -17 Goal Difference 36 Points
16th Bolton Wanderers -29 Goal Difference 36 Points
17th QPR -22 Goal Difference 35 Points
18th Blackburn Rovers -28 Goal Difference 35 Points
19th Wigan Athletic -28 Goal Difference 35 Points
20th Wolverhampton Wanderers -44 Goal Difference 24 Points (already relegated)
No change since the last update on who actually goes down with Wigan and Blackburn still in the bottom three in my final reckoning but it's still very tight, in fact goal difference is the only thing separating Blackburn and QPR and the fact that Blackburn would have scored more goals than Wigan keeping them above their neighbours. Aston Villa's recent form is reflected in the fact that they only scrape to safety by 1 point along with Bolton.
There's plenty of action on this front to look forward to this weekend, with all sides facing difficult or challenging opposition, it would only take one side to get a result and the others failing to change my table again. The race to avoid relegation is hotting up, it remains to be seen who can stand the heat.
Wednesday, 25 April 2012
Saturday, 14 April 2012
Premiership Relegation Update
Well, well, well who would have thought little old Wigan would beat Manchester United during the week? Having never beaten them in the Premier League they went on to win 1-0 and with QPR also winning and Blackburn going down at the last against Liverpool things have changed at the bottom since I last wrote and tried to predict the order of things in terms of the relegation fight. With this in mind I have had a go at a league table predictor ahead of today's games (14/04/12). This is how it looks (once all 38 games have been predicted):
16th: QPR 35 points -23 Goal Difference
17th: Bolton 35 points -31 Goal Difference
18th: Blackburn 33 points -27 Goal Difference
19th: Wigan 33 points -29 Goal Difference
20th: Wolves 23 points -47 Goal Difference
So, some changes since I last wrote with QPR now safe and Blackburn down with an as you were with regards to safety or not for the rest. I suspect things might change again over the next round of games so watch this space. As for the games on the 14th, 15th and 16th involving these sides, I can see Wolves losing, QPR and Blackburn picking up a point and Wigan losing but given some the results recently what do I know?!
16th: QPR 35 points -23 Goal Difference
17th: Bolton 35 points -31 Goal Difference
18th: Blackburn 33 points -27 Goal Difference
19th: Wigan 33 points -29 Goal Difference
20th: Wolves 23 points -47 Goal Difference
So, some changes since I last wrote with QPR now safe and Blackburn down with an as you were with regards to safety or not for the rest. I suspect things might change again over the next round of games so watch this space. As for the games on the 14th, 15th and 16th involving these sides, I can see Wolves losing, QPR and Blackburn picking up a point and Wigan losing but given some the results recently what do I know?!
Sunday, 8 April 2012
English Premier League Relegation Run-in
It's that time of the season in the Premier League that many football fans' attentions are focused on either the top of the table or the bottom. With the title pretty much looking like it'll be heading to the United side of the Mancunian City (United are 8 points clear of their City rivals at the time of writing with 6 games left to play), there are decidedly more interesting events taking place at the other end of the table. My last musings talked about whether or not football fans might witness a repeat of the West Brom "Great Escape" in the form of Blackburn Rovers and at the moment that is still a possibility but it is tight down there, very tight!
Let's take a look at the teams in the mix down at the bottom (I'm discounting Aston Villa as I don't think they will get dragged into the fight at this point):
Wigan are an enigma, they looked doomed and yet they have recently conjured up wins against Liverpool and Stoke, when you might have expected them to lose and were mightily unlucky against Chelsea in their last match. This is the time of the year when Wigan suddenly click into life as if they only just realise the peril they are in, OK it makes for an entertaining finish but I'm sure Wigan fans would much prefer mid table safety right now. Wigan are a difficult one to predict though as the remaining fixtures in April look very tough; Man United, Arsenal, Fulham and Newcastle. I think a lot will hinge on their game against Blackburn in May if they're still in the running to stay up at that point. Otherwise my gut would suggest it may well be too little too late this time.
Blackburn did manage to get themselves a full 6 points clear of trouble a few weeks ago but after 3 defeats in a row and with teams below them picking up points they are right back in it again. The form is worrying, conceding goals again (as for most of the season other than a two game break where they managed to keep clean sheets) and not scoring too many when this has been the one thing they could generally rely on. If they are to steer clear of trouble, they are going to need to start finding the back of the net once more and tighten up in defence. Their run in is mixed, some very tough games and a few that if they hit form they could well get results from. Next up is Liverpool at Ewood and fans must be hoping for some of the generosity shown towards Wigan and QPR in the last few weeks from the Merseyside team. Right now, I really think the last relegation place is going to be between Blackburn and QPR and given each teams respective fixtures I would say Blackburn might just scrape their "Great Escape" but maybe only by a point.
Many football fans had written QPR off as a lost cause, based mostly on their ridiculously tough run in. They have however given themselves a fighting chance by upsetting the odds and beating both Liverpool and Arsenal in recent weeks but with games still to come against Tottenham, Chelsea and Manchester City it is still going to be a tough ask to steer clear of trouble. Fans of the other clubs in the mire will be hoping that the teams QPR play will go for it wholeheartedly regardless of whether or not their respective seasons are in effect over. I believe that if QPR are to survive it will come down to their ability to pull off a shock in one of their so called "tougher matches".
Bolton have been up and down all season results wise, they have lost more games than anyone else in the Premier League but their ability to win rather than draw in other matches sees them in 16th position at the moment. Their run-in is arguably the easiest of all the teams at the bottom and it is for this reason that I think they will have enough to steer themselves clear of trouble despite them having a particularly tough year.
So in conclusion I predict Wolves, Wigan and QPR for the drop in that order with Blackburn just doing enough to escape and Bolton finishing in 16th. It will be a long and interesting run-in.
Let's take a look at the teams in the mix down at the bottom (I'm discounting Aston Villa as I don't think they will get dragged into the fight at this point):
- Wolverhampton Wanderers - currently bottom of the league, 6 points adrift of safety on 22;
- Wigan Athletic - 19th on 28 points, with a goal difference of -27;
- Blackburn Rovers - 18th also on 28 points with a goal difference of -24;
- QPR - 17th again on 28 points with a goal difference of -21;
- Bolton Wanderers - 16th, on 29 points with a goal difference of -27 (with a game in hand).
Wigan are an enigma, they looked doomed and yet they have recently conjured up wins against Liverpool and Stoke, when you might have expected them to lose and were mightily unlucky against Chelsea in their last match. This is the time of the year when Wigan suddenly click into life as if they only just realise the peril they are in, OK it makes for an entertaining finish but I'm sure Wigan fans would much prefer mid table safety right now. Wigan are a difficult one to predict though as the remaining fixtures in April look very tough; Man United, Arsenal, Fulham and Newcastle. I think a lot will hinge on their game against Blackburn in May if they're still in the running to stay up at that point. Otherwise my gut would suggest it may well be too little too late this time.
Blackburn did manage to get themselves a full 6 points clear of trouble a few weeks ago but after 3 defeats in a row and with teams below them picking up points they are right back in it again. The form is worrying, conceding goals again (as for most of the season other than a two game break where they managed to keep clean sheets) and not scoring too many when this has been the one thing they could generally rely on. If they are to steer clear of trouble, they are going to need to start finding the back of the net once more and tighten up in defence. Their run in is mixed, some very tough games and a few that if they hit form they could well get results from. Next up is Liverpool at Ewood and fans must be hoping for some of the generosity shown towards Wigan and QPR in the last few weeks from the Merseyside team. Right now, I really think the last relegation place is going to be between Blackburn and QPR and given each teams respective fixtures I would say Blackburn might just scrape their "Great Escape" but maybe only by a point.
Many football fans had written QPR off as a lost cause, based mostly on their ridiculously tough run in. They have however given themselves a fighting chance by upsetting the odds and beating both Liverpool and Arsenal in recent weeks but with games still to come against Tottenham, Chelsea and Manchester City it is still going to be a tough ask to steer clear of trouble. Fans of the other clubs in the mire will be hoping that the teams QPR play will go for it wholeheartedly regardless of whether or not their respective seasons are in effect over. I believe that if QPR are to survive it will come down to their ability to pull off a shock in one of their so called "tougher matches".
Bolton have been up and down all season results wise, they have lost more games than anyone else in the Premier League but their ability to win rather than draw in other matches sees them in 16th position at the moment. Their run-in is arguably the easiest of all the teams at the bottom and it is for this reason that I think they will have enough to steer themselves clear of trouble despite them having a particularly tough year.
So in conclusion I predict Wolves, Wigan and QPR for the drop in that order with Blackburn just doing enough to escape and Bolton finishing in 16th. It will be a long and interesting run-in.
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